Perth – Australia 2028

Greens were so close for overtaking the Liberals in the Primary vote which is staggering given how close this seat has been in the past.

I think there is a slow drift to the Left here. This one seat the Libs list in 1983 and never won back. Adjusted to 2022 boundaries it was a seat that voted more for the Voice than the Republic. I think densification is making this seat more socially progressive. There are pockets of Liberal strength (Dianella-previously in Stirling), West Perth and East Perth. On these boundaries, Libs would have won in 2013 but that maybe misleading as Stirling was a seat that Labor would have run dead in 2013 so no sandbagging in Dianella and there would have been increased density since then. Unless Libs get 62% of the statewide result i cant see them winning Perth even if it is just for one term.

perth has changed alot over the last decade. was population has boomed and the rise of mark mcgowan and covid has pushed the state further to the left. i imagine the libs will never recover all of the ground they once had in the west. seats like Swan Hasluck and Perth will probably be unwinnable but they should recover seats like Moore, Pearce, Bullwinkel and possibly Cowan.

Swan maybe winnable for Libs at landslide or if Libs get more than 53% of the statewide vote is Hasluck/Swan. However, i think Perth has a long term drift to Labor. I think Swan is actually slightly better than Cowan for Libs as it has wealthier areas along the waterfront while Cowan is very CALD.

perth is probably going to be eventually like other capital cities and be a ALP v GRN seat

Agree John and Nimalan, even the Federal seat of Brisbane may become a Labor vs Greens 2CP contest in the near future given the demographic trends of young, tertiary educated professionals moving away from the LNP.

One caveat regarding the federal seat of Brisbane is that it still contains some affluent suburbs with high numbers of retirees (old money areas) such as Ascot and Hamilton so there is still a substantial baseline LNP vote unlike the seat of Griffith across the river.

i think the LNP will continue to remain in the 2pp. the libs have some hope of regaining it as there is a small right of centre vote outside the lnp that still exists to prop them up and this seat will continue as a 3 way race. the libs will need to get their primary vote back up above 40% though. and could conceivably win the seat back in 2028 although probly in a GRN v LNP race. in a traditional 2pp race it would probably take at least 2 elcetions.

@ Yoh An
That is correct Brisbane has a Old money areas east of Breakfast Creek so it makes a more different to other Capital city seats. Perth does have some areas of Liberal strength but they are not Rock solid and cannot overcome solid left-wing booths. East Perth and West Perth have some affluence but they are not like Old Money areas in Curtin. Dianella is a good area for Libs but it is a middle class marginal suburb and may be removed in a future redistribution if Stirling is resurrected in future. A seat like Calare is one that Labor held in my lifetime but is probably gone for good and Labor no longer cares. Monash/McMillan is probably another example.

Swan will never go Libs again, demographic shift outside of South Perth has been far too extreme. Even with backlash to ALP on some things the Green vote in this seat has gone up 5% or so since the Libs last held the seat.

On Perth, Greens obviously targeted this seat last election, didn’t go super well as they went backwards in the 3CP, not sure what the magic trick for them there is.

Last election the issue with the Greens being competitive was that:

1) There were only four candidates: ALP, Lib, GRN, ON. One Nation and Liberals were never going to preference the Greens so Labor sucked up their preferences.

2) Liberals finished 2nd with One Nation sending their preferences over, which meant that the Greens were heading into nowhere but exclusion and their strong vote helped Labor with a massive win.

Looking at the 2025 primary votes and 3CP results, it appears that more One Nation preferences flowed to the Greens than to Labor. I thought it was interesting to note.

I don’t think Perth will become an ALP vs GRN 2CP contest anytime soon like other capital city seats. The LIB vote might recover next election (no guarantee though) after their poor results in metro Perth in 2022 and 2025. Perth is also an increasingly expensive city to live in. Rents and home prices could potentially push out demographics that are favourable to the Greens – young-ish people, renters and students.

Another thing is the electorates of Sydney and Melbourne are exclusively inner-city suburbs and are denser and smaller. Perth is less dense and larger and contains parts of suburbia.

I dont think Perth will be a ALP V GRN seat nor do i think it will be a GRN V LIB seat. Brisbane became a GRN V LIB seat for 1 term since it had very Strong Liberal areas and also areas with enough Green strength to put them in 2CP. I cant see ALP falling out of 2CP.

@Votante, that’s interesting about One Nation preference flows but in some ways not surprising, as I think there is certainly a significant cohort of One Nation voters who vote less on ideology (left vs right) and more a protest against the major parties / status quo.

In that context, the Libs would still clearly get most of their preferences being the most ideologically aligned option, but the Greens who are ideologically opposed but not a major party would probably get more preferences than Labor who are both ideologically opposed and the incumbent major party in government.

The votes that go to labor are those of people who would normally put labor ahead of greens and lnp but are willing to preference one nation especially those in the right faction